Monday, January 2, 2012


//the Euro will get stronger?
>qeury: Who is Fitch? =>FB.note

The euro could become the world's leading currency in the next decade if leaders of the single-currency bloc succeed in tightening fiscal integration, European Central Bank policymaker Christian Noyer

Ratings agency Fitch has said it doubts a comprehensive solution to the crisis can be found and urged more decisive action from the ECB.

>random correlation = Christian Noyer is also governor of the Bank of France

//prediction(2012.jn): Renminbi floats in five years.
//prediction(2012.jn): It will take more than five years to modernized China's banking system.

//conclusion: dissonance 
>query: what are the odds for the two scenarios? 

##.january.2012.iran.nuclear proliferation.regime-change.diplomacy

Reflecting possible fears about liquidity and the flight of hard currency, Iran over the past few months has restricted cash withdrawals and only allows those travelling abroad to take $2,000 a year.US sanctions already forbid imports of Iranian oil. France is pressing the EU to follow suit. Iran sells large volumes to China, India, South Korea and Japan but Italy, Spain and Greece are also big importers and an EU embargo would pile further pressure on the Iranian economy.
//random correlation: France pressuring ->query: Why not Germany?

//fake currency in India.

The STRs, which gave rise to a reasonable ground of suspicion that the transaction may involve the proceeds of crime or financing of activities related to terrorism or were made in circumstances of unusual complexity, increased three times in 2010-11 as compared to 10,067 in 2009-10 fiscal.

The FIU report, submitted recently to the Finance Ministry, stated that "private Indian banks contributed majority of CCRs".

//currency trading.making money on sanctions.

Iraq’s central bank said it’s under a “currency attack” as traders buy U.S. dollars in daily auctions and resell them on the black market in Syria and Iran, which face hard currency shortages due to sanctions.
Demand for the greenback at the central bank auctions has risen since November to about $200 million to $300 million a day, compared with about $160 million in the prior 12 months, the deputy central bank governor, Mudher Salih, said in an interview in Baghdad Jan. 10.

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